Lithium — The White Gold

What Is Lithium?

Lithium is the lightest metal and the lightest solid element, with extraordinary electrochemical properties that make it the foundation of rechargeable battery technology. Lithium-ion batteries power virtually every electric vehicle, smartphone, laptop, and grid-scale energy storage system. Global lithium demand is projected to more than double by 2030, driven almost entirely by battery production for EVs and stationary storage.

Production is currently dominated by the "Lithium Triangle" of Chile, Argentina, and Australia, with China controlling the majority of processing. However, the DRC's Manono deposit represents one of the most significant potential supply additions globally.

The Manono Deposit

The Manono lithium-tin deposit in Tanganyika Province, DRC, contains an AVZ-reported Roche Dure mineral resource of roughly 400 million tonnes at 1.65% lithium oxide — making it one of the world's largest undeveloped hard-rock lithium resources. The deposit's scale and grade could supply a substantial fraction of global lithium demand if a lawful development pathway is settled.

However, Manono remains mired in a multi-party legal and political dispute. Australia's AVZ Minerals claims rights through Dathcom and PR13359. Zijin reports a separate Manono Northeast Lithium Project through Manono Lithium SAS, with a mining licence secured in September 2024 and commissioning targeted for June 30, 2026. KoBold Metals signed a conditional May 2025 framework with AVZ for a potential acquisition of AVZ's interests, dependent on dispute resolution, regulatory approvals, and agreement with the DRC state. The practical ownership and development path remains unresolved pending enforceable legal, regulatory, and commercial outcomes.

Corridor Connection

Manono is located approximately 400km north of the Lobito Corridor's DRC section. While not directly on the corridor route, development of the Manono deposit would likely utilise corridor logistics for lithium concentrate export through Lobito port, adding another critical mineral commodity to corridor throughput. Resolution of the ownership dispute would unlock one of the world's most significant lithium developments and enhance the corridor's strategic importance.

The Manono Megadeposit

The Manono lithium-tin deposit in the DRC is one of the largest hard-rock lithium deposits ever discovered, with a measured and indicated resource exceeding 400 million tonnes at 1.65% lithium oxide. If developed to full scale, Manono could produce over 700,000 tonnes of lithium concentrate annually, making the DRC a top-five global lithium producer and potentially the largest in Africa.

However, Manono's development has been blocked by one of the most contentious mining disputes in African critical minerals. AVZ Minerals, the Australian company that delineated Roche Dure, remains in legal dispute with DRC state entities and Zijin-linked interests over ownership and development rights. The dispute — involving allegations of unlawful permit cancellation, tenure splitting, and contested pre-emption rights — has frozen AVZ's claimed development pathway while Zijin reports construction activity on Manono Northeast.

The Manono dispute has direct corridor implications. If developed, the deposit would generate massive freight volumes for corridor logistics. The lithium concentrates would need to reach processing facilities — currently concentrated overwhelmingly in China — via export routes that include the Lobito Corridor as the most direct Atlantic option. The resolution of the Manono dispute will significantly influence corridor traffic projections and investment returns.

Global Lithium Market Context

Global lithium demand is projected to grow from approximately 800,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2024 to over 2.5 million tonnes by 2030, driven almost entirely by battery production for electric vehicles and energy storage. This tripling of demand in six years represents one of the fastest commodity demand ramps in history.

Supply has responded aggressively, particularly from Australian spodumene mines and South American brine operations in Argentina and Chile. This supply response drove lithium prices down by over 80% from their 2022 peak, causing project delays and cancellations across the industry. However, the structural demand trajectory remains intact, and most analysts project a return to supply deficits by the late 2020s as demand growth outpaces new supply commissioning.

Africa is emerging as a significant new lithium province. Beyond Manono in the DRC, projects in Zimbabwe (Bikita, Arcadia), Mali (Goulamina), Ghana (Ewoyaa), and Namibia (Uis) are in various stages of development. The DRC's potential, if Manono is developed, would make it the continent's dominant lithium producer and add a major new commodity to the corridor's freight mix.

Lithium Processing and Value Chain

Lithium's value chain involves multiple processing stages: hard-rock lithium ore is first concentrated at the mine site, then converted to lithium hydroxide or lithium carbonate at chemical processing plants, before being used in battery cathode manufacturing. China currently controls approximately 65% of global lithium chemical processing capacity.

The strategic imperative to diversify lithium processing away from China creates opportunities for corridor-adjacent processing facilities. The Lobito Refinery Complex concept includes potential lithium processing capacity. If realised, this would enable the corridor to export higher-value lithium chemicals rather than raw concentrates, capturing more value within Africa and reducing Western dependence on Chinese processing.

For investors, lithium represents both the corridor's greatest potential upside and its greatest uncertainty. Manono development would be transformative for corridor economics. Continued deadlock leaves corridor lithium potential unrealised. Our monitoring tracks the Manono dispute and its implications for corridor development.

Lithium ESG Profile

Hard-rock lithium mining — the method applicable to Manono and other African deposits — presents different ESG challenges than South American brine extraction. Water consumption is lower than brine operations but still significant. Tailings management requires long-term planning. Community displacement for large open-pit operations is a concern.

The DRC's governance challenges add layers of ESG risk: corruption in licensing, revenue transparency, community benefit sharing, and environmental enforcement all require independent monitoring. Our ESG Intelligence platform will provide lithium-specific ratings as corridor lithium projects advance.

Lithium Pricing and Market Volatility

Lithium carbonate prices experienced extreme volatility between 2021 and 2025. From a baseline of approximately $10,000 per tonne in early 2021, prices surged to over $80,000 per tonne in November 2022 as EV demand outpaced supply. The subsequent crash to below $10,000 by late 2024 was driven by massive supply additions from Australian, Chilean, and Chinese operations combined with slower-than-expected EV adoption in some markets.

This price cycle devastated many lithium mining projects. Companies delayed expansion plans, shelved greenfield developments, and in some cases suspended operations entirely. African lithium projects were particularly affected: the combination of high development costs, long permitting timelines, and collapsed prices made investor fundraising extremely difficult. The Manono dispute compounded these challenges for the DRC's flagship lithium asset.

However, the supply response to low prices — mine closures, delayed expansions, cancelled projects — is creating the conditions for the next price upcycle. Most analysts project a return to structural deficit by 2027-2028, with prices recovering to $20,000-$40,000 per tonne. Projects that can be developed during the price trough will benefit most from the recovery, creating an incentive for Manono resolution and corridor lithium infrastructure investment.

Lithium and African Economic Sovereignty

The scramble for African lithium raises important questions about economic sovereignty and value capture. Zimbabwe's ban on raw lithium ore exports — requiring at least primary processing within the country — represents one model for ensuring African countries capture processing value. The DRC has discussed similar measures for its mineral exports.

For the corridor, lithium processing represents a significant value-addition opportunity. Converting lithium spodumene concentrate (worth approximately $1,000-1,500 per tonne) into lithium hydroxide (worth $10,000-15,000 per tonne) within the corridor region would capture 10x more value per tonne of freight. The Lobito Refinery Complex concept includes this processing potential. Our benefit sharing analysis examines the policy frameworks needed to ensure lithium value stays in Africa.

Related Pages

Corridor mines: Manono

Key companies: AVZ Minerals · Zijin Mining · KoBold Metals

Related minerals: Cobalt · Tin (co-deposited at Manono)

Countries: DR Congo · Zambia · Angola