DRC Cobalt Production — 70% of Global Supply

The Scale of DRC Dominance

No country dominates the supply of any critical mineral to the degree that the Democratic Republic of the Congo dominates cobalt. The DRC produces approximately 70 to 78 percent of the world's mined cobalt — a concentration of supply that has no parallel among the minerals essential to the energy transition, defence technology, or advanced manufacturing. In absolute terms, the DRC produced an estimated 170,000 to 200,000 tonnes of cobalt in 2024, out of a global total of approximately 230,000 to 260,000 tonnes.

This dominance is geological in origin. The DRC's Katanga-Lualaba Copperbelt hosts the world's largest and highest-grade cobalt deposits, where the metal occurs as a by-product of copper mining. The cobalt-bearing ore bodies in this region are unique in their scale and concentration. While cobalt occurs as a minor by-product in nickel and copper mines worldwide — in Australia, the Philippines, Cuba, Canada, Madagascar, and elsewhere — no other jurisdiction comes close to the DRC's combination of reserve size, ore grade, and production scale.

The strategic implications of this concentration are profound. Cobalt is a critical input in the lithium-ion batteries that power electric vehicles, portable electronics, and grid-scale energy storage systems. It is essential in superalloys used in jet engines and gas turbines. It is used in catalysts for petroleum refining. A disruption to DRC cobalt supply — whether from political instability, regulatory action, conflict, or logistics failure — would ripple through global supply chains affecting the automotive, aerospace, defence, and technology sectors.

This vulnerability has driven two parallel responses. On the technology side, battery manufacturers have invested heavily in cobalt-free or cobalt-reduced battery chemistries — most notably lithium iron phosphate (LFP) cells, which contain no cobalt, and high-nickel NMC (nickel-manganese-cobalt) cathodes that reduce cobalt content per cell. On the supply side, governments and companies have sought to diversify cobalt sourcing through investments in Australian, Canadian, Indonesian, and Moroccan projects. Despite these efforts, the DRC's dominance remains entrenched, and most forecasters project that the country will continue to supply 60 to 70 percent or more of global cobalt through at least 2030.

Global Cobalt Production Shares

Major Industrial Producers

DRC cobalt production is dominated by a handful of large industrial operations, most of which produce cobalt as a by-product of copper mining. The ownership structure of these operations is heavily tilted toward Chinese companies, a reality that adds a layer of geopolitical complexity to the DRC's geological dominance.

CMOC Group

CMOC Group (formerly China Molybdenum) is the world's largest cobalt producer, operating the Tenke-Fungurume and Kisanfu copper-cobalt mines in the DRC. Tenke-Fungurume produces approximately 25,000 to 30,000 tonnes of cobalt per year, making it the single largest cobalt-producing operation globally. Kisanfu, which began production in 2024, is expected to add substantial additional cobalt volumes as it ramps up. CMOC acquired both assets from Freeport-McMoRan — Tenke-Fungurume in 2016 and Kisanfu in 2020 — transforming a Chinese molybdenum miner into the dominant force in global cobalt supply.

Glencore

Glencore, the Swiss-British mining and trading giant, is the second-largest industrial cobalt producer in the DRC through its Kamoto (KCC) and Mutanda operations. KCC produces cobalt alongside copper from both underground and open-pit mines near Kolwezi. Mutanda, which was placed on care and maintenance in 2019 due to depressed cobalt prices and has since restarted, was previously one of the world's top cobalt sources. Together, Glencore's DRC operations produce approximately 30,000 to 40,000 tonnes of cobalt annually when both are at full capacity. Glencore's cobalt production is significant not only for its scale but for its Western ownership — making Glencore one of the few non-Chinese companies with major DRC cobalt assets.

Eurasian Resources Group (ERG)

ERG, a Kazakh-owned mining group, operates the Metalkol RTR (reworked tailings reclamation) project near Kolwezi, which reprocesses historic copper-cobalt tailings using acid leaching technology. Metalkol produces both copper and cobalt and represents an innovative approach to resource extraction — recovering metals from waste material left by previous mining operations. ERG also holds other concessions in the DRC's Copperbelt and has pursued vertical integration through cobalt processing partnerships.

Chemaf and Shalina Resources

Chemaf, part of the Shalina Resources group, operates several copper-cobalt processing operations in the DRC, including facilities near Lubumbashi. Chemaf produces cobalt hydroxide and copper cathode from purchased ore and concentrate, functioning as both a miner and a custom processor. The company has invested in expanding its processing capacity and has partnered with international off-takers.

Other Chinese Operators

Beyond CMOC, multiple Chinese companies produce cobalt in the DRC. Huayou Cobalt's subsidiary Congo Dongfang Mining (CDM) has historically been the largest purchaser and processor of artisanally mined cobalt. CNMC produces cobalt as a by-product at its Deziwa mine. Zijin Mining produces modest cobalt volumes at Kamoa-Kakula (though cobalt is a minor by-product there). Smaller Chinese operators run dozens of additional cobalt-producing facilities across the Copperbelt. China's collective control over DRC cobalt production is estimated at 60 to 80 percent of total industrial output.

Industrial vs. Artisanal Production

A distinctive feature of DRC cobalt production is the coexistence of large-scale industrial mining and artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM). Industrial operations account for approximately 70 to 80 percent of DRC cobalt output, while ASM contributes an estimated 20 to 30 percent. The two sectors are interlinked but operate under fundamentally different conditions.

Industrial mining in the DRC follows broadly similar practices to large-scale mining elsewhere: mechanised extraction, formal employment contracts, environmental management plans (of varying quality), and export through established commercial channels. The major producers described above are industrial operators with professionally managed mines, processing facilities, and corporate governance structures.

Artisanal mining, by contrast, involves an estimated 150,000 to 250,000 individual miners (creuseurs) who extract cobalt-bearing ore using hand tools from surface-accessible deposits, abandoned mine workings, and informal pits. ASM cobalt is typically sold through a chain of intermediaries — depot operators, negociants, and comptoirs — before reaching industrial processing facilities or export markets. The ASM sector is associated with severe human rights concerns, including child labour, unsafe working conditions, fatal accidents in unregulated mine shafts, and environmental degradation.

The ASM cobalt supply chain has been the subject of intense international scrutiny. Major technology and automotive companies — including Apple, BMW, Tesla, and Samsung — have faced pressure from advocacy organisations, investors, and regulators to ensure their supply chains are free from cobalt produced through child labour or in hazardous conditions. This scrutiny has driven investment in traceability technologies, responsible sourcing programmes, and efforts to formalise the ASM sector, though progress has been uneven and the challenges remain formidable.

Production Trends and Market Dynamics

DRC cobalt production has grown substantially over the past decade, driven by the same copper mining expansion that has transformed the country's copper sector. Because most DRC cobalt is a by-product of copper mining, cobalt output is closely linked to copper production decisions. When copper prices are high and copper mines expand, cobalt production increases proportionally. This by-product dynamic means that cobalt supply is not directly responsive to cobalt prices — a structural feature with important market implications.

Oversupply and Price Collapse

The cobalt market has experienced dramatic price volatility. Cobalt prices peaked above $90,000 per tonne in 2018, driven by electric vehicle hype and supply concerns. They subsequently collapsed below $30,000 per tonne as DRC production surged, artisanal supply expanded, and battery manufacturers shifted toward cobalt-reduced chemistries. By 2023-2024, cobalt prices had fallen further to approximately $24,000 to $35,000 per tonne, reflecting a persistent oversupply that was compounded by growing Indonesian cobalt production (as a by-product of nickel processing for batteries).

This oversupply dynamic creates a paradox. The DRC's cobalt dominance is sometimes described as a vulnerability for global supply chains, yet the actual market condition has been one of surplus rather than shortage. The risk is not current undersupply but potential future supply disruption — a political event, conflict escalation, or policy change that could abruptly curtail DRC output and create an acute shortage in a market that has become accustomed to abundant supply.

The Battery Chemistry Shift

The rise of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) battery chemistry — which uses no cobalt — is reshaping cobalt demand projections. LFP batteries have captured a growing share of the EV market, particularly in China, where they account for more than 60 percent of new EV battery installations. This shift reduces per-vehicle cobalt demand and moderates the growth trajectory of total cobalt demand. However, high-nickel NMC chemistries that still use cobalt (in reduced quantities) remain preferred for premium, long-range EVs, and cobalt-containing chemistries dominate in portable electronics and aerospace applications. The net effect is slower cobalt demand growth than was projected five years ago, but still meaningful growth that will require continued DRC production.

The DRC Export Ban on Raw Cobalt

The DRC government has periodically signalled and partially implemented restrictions on the export of unprocessed cobalt, aiming to force value addition within the country. A 2021 decree required cobalt to be processed to at least hydroxide form before export, although enforcement has been inconsistent. The broader policy direction is clear: the DRC seeks to capture more of the cobalt value chain domestically, rather than exporting raw ore and concentrate that is processed into high-value battery chemicals in China or elsewhere. If vigorously enforced, export restrictions could alter global cobalt supply chain geography, although they also risk deterring investment if implemented without adequate processing infrastructure and regulatory clarity.

Indonesian Competition

A significant emerging challenge to DRC cobalt dominance comes from Indonesia, where massive investment in nickel processing — principally by Chinese companies including Tsingshan and its partners — has created a rapidly growing source of cobalt as a by-product of nickel laterite processing for the battery supply chain. Indonesian cobalt production has risen from negligible levels to an estimated 15,000 to 20,000 tonnes per year and is projected to grow further as additional nickel processing capacity comes online. This Indonesian supply is already integrated into Chinese battery supply chains, as the nickel-cobalt processing facilities are Chinese-owned and oriented toward Chinese battery manufacturers. While Indonesian cobalt does not threaten the DRC's overall dominance of global supply, it represents incremental competition that, combined with the shift toward cobalt-free LFP chemistries, puts downward pressure on cobalt prices and complicates the outlook for DRC cobalt producers.

Strategic Cobalt Reserve

The DRC government has discussed the creation of a national strategic cobalt reserve — a stockpile of cobalt that could be used to influence market prices and ensure supply security. The Entreprise Generale du Cobalt (EGC), established in 2019 as the state monopoly buyer of artisanally mined cobalt, was conceived partly as a mechanism for managing supply and stabilising the domestic cobalt economy. Whether the DRC can effectively operate a strategic reserve, given the fiscal constraints on the government and the operational challenges of managing cobalt inventories, remains to be seen. But the ambition reflects a growing awareness within the DRC that its geological dominance could be leveraged more strategically.

Export Routes and Refining Destinations

DRC cobalt follows export pathways that mirror those of DRC copper, with the same logistical challenges of distance, border crossings, and inadequate transport infrastructure. However, cobalt's higher value per tonne (relative to copper) means that logistics costs are a smaller proportion of total value, making longer and more expensive routes commercially viable.

Current Export Flows

The majority of DRC cobalt is exported in intermediate form — primarily as cobalt hydroxide, a semi-processed product containing approximately 30 to 40 percent cobalt. Cobalt hydroxide is the standard form in which DRC cobalt enters the global supply chain. It is produced at mine-site or regional processing facilities by leaching cobalt from copper-cobalt ore and precipitating the cobalt as a hydroxide compound.

From the DRC's mining regions, cobalt hydroxide is trucked south through Zambia to South African ports (primarily Durban) or east to Dar es Salaam in Tanzania. Some volumes move through Walvis Bay in Namibia or Beira in Mozambique. The choice of route depends on the destination market, available transport capacity, and the cost and reliability of each option at any given time.

China as Primary Destination

The overwhelming majority of DRC cobalt hydroxide — estimated at 70 to 80 percent of exports — is shipped to China, where it is refined into battery-grade cobalt sulphate, cobalt oxide, and other chemicals at facilities operated by companies including Huayou Cobalt, GEM Co., Jinchuan Group, and others. China's dominance of cobalt refining means that even cobalt mined by Western-owned companies in the DRC typically passes through Chinese processing infrastructure before reaching battery manufacturers. This Chinese stranglehold on processing is the subject of growing Western concern and is a key driver of alternative supply chain strategies including the Lobito Corridor.

The Lobito Corridor Alternative

The Lobito Corridor offers a potential alternative export route for DRC cobalt. By routing cobalt westward to the Atlantic port of Lobito, the corridor could provide direct access to European refineries — including Umicore's Kokkola facility in Finland and Freeport Cobalt's Kokkola refinery — as well as to planned North American cobalt processing facilities. The corridor's strategic alignment with Western supply chain diversification objectives makes it a natural conduit for cobalt destined for non-Chinese refineries. However, realising this potential requires completing the corridor's rail and port infrastructure, establishing commercial agreements between DRC producers and Western refiners, and ensuring that the logistics economics of the westward route are competitive with established southern and eastern corridors.

The value addition opportunity along the corridor is also significant for cobalt. Rather than exporting cobalt hydroxide, the DRC could develop capacity to produce battery-grade cobalt chemicals within the country or in corridor-adjacent processing zones. This would capture a larger share of the value chain, create higher-skilled employment, and reduce dependency on Chinese refining. The corridor development programme includes provisions for industrial zones that could host cobalt processing facilities, though attracting the necessary investment and technical expertise remains a significant challenge.