Political Risk Assessment — Corridor Countries

Risk Overview

Political risk is the most significant non-geological risk factor for corridor investments. The three corridor countries span a wide risk spectrum — from Zambia's relatively stable democratic governance to the DRC's complex security environment. Our Political Risk Assessment provides quarterly updates on the factors most relevant to mining and infrastructure investors.

DRC Political Risk

The DRC presents the highest political risk among corridor countries. The ongoing conflict in eastern DRC does not directly affect Katanga mining operations but contributes to national instability and governance challenges. Resource nationalism pressures, including the "strategic substances" provisions of the 2018 Mining Code, create regulatory risk for operators. The Gécamines state mining company's partnership disputes with international operators remain a recurring source of uncertainty.

Zambia Political Risk

Zambia offers the corridor region's most stable political environment. Democratic transitions of power, an independent judiciary, and transparent regulatory processes make Zambia the preferred jurisdiction for Western mining investors. Risks include fiscal policy changes (particularly mining royalty rates), sovereign debt management following the 2020 default and subsequent restructuring, and infrastructure deficits affecting mining operations.

Angola Political Risk

Angola's political landscape is dominated by the MPLA party, with governance centralised around the presidency. Economic reforms aimed at diversification away from oil dependence provide a positive backdrop for mining investment. Risks include bureaucratic complexity, foreign exchange controls, and the pace of institutional reform. The mining code reforms and ANRM establishment are positive developments but implementation remains uneven.

Corridor-Specific Risks

Cross-border corridor operations face unique risks including customs harmonisation challenges, gauge standardisation between rail networks, and multi-jurisdiction regulatory compliance. The corridor's multi-country nature means that disruption in any single country can affect the entire logistics chain. The corridor governance framework aims to mitigate these risks through institutional coordination.

Assessment Methodology

Our political risk assessments combine quantitative indicators (World Bank Governance Indicators, Transparency International CPI, Freedom House scores) with qualitative analysis from our field network across all three countries. Assessments are updated quarterly and published in our Quarterly Outlook, with ad-hoc alerts for significant political developments.