Copper, Cobalt, and the Copperbelt: How the DRC and Zambia Are Reshaping Global Critical Mineral Supply Chains

By 2040, the International Energy Agency projects that clean-energy technologies will require 40 times more lithium, 25 times more graphite, and 20 times more nickel and cobalt than they consumed in 2020. This exponential demand growth converges on a single geographic region with extraordinary intensity: the Central African Copperbelt, spanning the southern Democratic Republic of the Congo and northern Zambia, which contains among the most concentrated deposits of copper and cobalt on Earth. The Lobito Corridor exists because of these minerals. Its commercial viability, its geopolitical significance, and its development potential all derive from the geological endowment beneath the Copperbelt — and the global race to secure access to it.

The DRC is the world’s largest cobalt producer, commanding approximately 70 percent of global supply. It is Africa’s largest copper producer, with the nation’s estimated $24 trillion in untapped mineral resources representing perhaps the most valuable geological endowment of any country on Earth. Zambia, Africa’s second-largest copper producer, has set an ambitious target of increasing annual output to 3 million tonnes — a tripling from current levels. Together, these two nations will determine whether the global energy transition has sufficient raw material inputs to meet its timeline, and the Lobito Corridor will determine how efficiently those materials reach world markets.

The DRC’s Mineral Empire

The DRC’s mining sector is concentrated in two southern provinces: Haut-Katanga and Lualaba. These provinces contain the most productive copper-cobalt deposits in the world, anchored by mega-mines that individually rank among the largest on the planet. The Kisanfu mine, operated by CMOC (a Chinese-controlled company), produced approximately 51,920 tonnes of cobalt in 2024 — nearly 20 percent of global production from a single operation. The Tenke Fungurume mine, also under CMOC control following its acquisition from Freeport-McMoRan, produced approximately 48,080 tonnes of cobalt.

The Kamoa-Kakula copper complex, developed by Ivanhoe Mines (in which Chinese company Zijin Mining holds a controlling stake), is the largest and most important copper discovery in the DRC in decades. Production has ramped rapidly since first ore in 2021, with the operation targeting 600,000+ tonnes of copper annually at full build-out — which would make it one of the largest copper mines in the world. The operation’s chairman, Olivier Binyingo, has emphasized that mining projects create value when they integrate into the local economy, a principle that applies directly to the Lobito Corridor’s promise of local procurement and job creation.

The dominance of Chinese-owned or Chinese-controlled operations presents a fundamental paradox for the Lobito Corridor. Chinese firms own 15 of the 19 major mines in the DRC. The remaining four operations often sell their raw material to Chinese purchasers. A Western-funded railway with an Atlantic orientation does not automatically guarantee Western acquisition of the minerals it transports. Chinese-owned mines could utilize Western-funded infrastructure while continuing to ship processed materials to Chinese refineries. This coexistence of strategic competition and practical cooperation is one of the corridor’s defining complexities.

Zambia’s Copper Renaissance

Zambia’s mining sector has undergone a renaissance driven by copper’s centrality to electrification. The government has set a target of increasing annual copper production to 3 million tonnes — an ambitious goal that would require massive new investment in both mining capacity and transport infrastructure. First Quantum Minerals, a major Canadian operator, has committed rail freight volumes to the Lobito Corridor from its Zambian operations. The company’s Kansanshi and Sentinel mines are among the largest copper producers in the country.

KoBold Metals represents a new model of mining investment in the Copperbelt. The company, backed by Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, and other prominent technology investors, applies artificial intelligence and machine learning to mineral exploration. Its Mingomba project in Zambia has been described as one of the most significant copper discoveries in recent history. KoBold has committed more than 300,000 tonnes of annual copper to anchor the commercial viability of the Zambia-Lobito rail project — a commitment that effectively underwrites the greenfield railway’s business case. KoBold also struck a deal with the DRC in September 2025 securing exploration permits and committing to digitize the country’s geological data.

The development of local refining capacity is a priority for both the DRC and Zambia. Kobaloni Energy is planning construction of the first cobalt sulfate refinery on the African continent, which would enable in-country processing of raw cobalt rather than export in unrefined form. Both the DRC and Zambia have expressed their desire to create special economic zones for preliminary battery product processing — a step toward capturing more of the value chain domestically rather than exporting raw ore for processing in China, which currently controls 70–80 percent of global cobalt refining capacity.

The Transport Bottleneck

The geological wealth of the Copperbelt is constrained by a fundamental logistics problem. Currently, the vast majority of copper and cobalt exports from the DRC and Zambia travel overland by heavy-duty truck to ports in South Africa (Durban) or Tanzania (Dar es Salaam) — journeys that can take over 45 days and involve border crossings, road degradation, and significant transport costs that erode the economic margin of mining operations. This transport bottleneck is a binding constraint on production expansion: as output volumes increase, the existing road-based logistics system becomes increasingly saturated.

The Lobito Corridor offers a transformative alternative. Rail transport from the Copperbelt to the Port of Lobito reduces transit time to approximately one week. Rail is dramatically more cost-efficient than trucking for bulk commodities: a single train can carry the equivalent of dozens of heavy-duty trucks, at a fraction of the fuel cost and road damage. For European and American markets, the Atlantic route via Lobito is geographically shorter than the Indian Ocean routes via South Africa or Tanzania, further reducing shipping times and costs.

Mark Davis, CEO of Glencore Copper Africa, articulated the industry perspective at Mining Indaba 2026, stating that infrastructure — especially logistics — is crucial for long-term mining competitiveness, and that projects like the Lobito Corridor can fundamentally transform cost structures for copper producers. Albert Zeufack, Division Director at the World Bank, broadened the perspective by emphasizing that mineral wealth represents a major opportunity for the DRC, but its transformation into sustainable growth depends on investments in infrastructure, human capital, and governance — not just extraction capacity.

The Battery Supply Chain and Downstream Value

The corridor’s strategic importance extends beyond raw mineral extraction into the global battery supply chain that converts copper and cobalt into the components of electric vehicles, grid storage systems, and consumer electronics. Currently, the vast majority of cobalt mined in the DRC is exported in relatively unprocessed form to Chinese refineries, where it is converted into cobalt sulfate and other battery-grade chemicals before entering global manufacturing supply chains. China controls between 70 and 80 percent of global cobalt refining capacity — a bottleneck that gives Beijing extraordinary leverage over the entire downstream value chain regardless of where the raw material originates.

Breaking this refining monopoly is a central objective of Western corridor investment. Kobaloni Energy’s planned cobalt sulfate refinery would be the first on the African continent, enabling in-country processing of raw cobalt rather than export in concentrate form. If successful, the refinery would demonstrate that value-added processing is commercially viable in the producing region — a proof of concept that could catalyze additional refining investment in the DRC and Zambia. The DRC and Zambia have jointly committed to developing special economic zones along the corridor for preliminary battery product processing, with the explicit goal of capturing more of the value chain domestically.

The International Energy Agency’s projections for critical mineral demand create urgency around these value addition ambitions. Copper demand linked to renewable energy infrastructure and electric vehicle deployment is projected to grow substantially through 2040. Cobalt demand, while subject to technological substitution risks (some battery chemistries are reducing cobalt content), remains critical for high-performance applications. Lithium discoveries in the DRC add another dimension — KoBold Metals’ $1 billion deal for part of the Manono lithium deposit positions the corridor as a potential hub for multiple battery metals, not just copper and cobalt.

The Logistics Cost Revolution

The economic impact of the Lobito Corridor on mining operations can be understood through the lens of logistics cost reduction. Currently, transporting copper concentrate from the Copperbelt to South African ports by truck costs approximately $150–200 per tonne, with transit times exceeding 45 days. Road degradation, border delays, fuel costs, and vehicle maintenance create costs that compound across the entire supply chain. For marginal mining operations, transport costs can determine whether production is economically viable.

Rail transport through the Lobito Corridor is projected to reduce these costs by 30–50 percent while cutting transit times to approximately one week. For a mining operation producing 200,000 tonnes annually, the cost savings could amount to tens of millions of dollars per year — a transformative improvement in operating economics that makes previously marginal deposits commercially viable and significantly improves returns for existing operations. Glencore Copper Africa CEO Mark Davis explicitly stated at Mining Indaba 2026 that the Lobito Corridor can fundamentally transform cost structures for copper producers in the region.

The cost reduction benefits extend beyond the mining sector. Agricultural producers, manufacturers, and traders along the corridor would also benefit from reduced transport costs and faster transit times. The multimodal connectivity being developed — rail, road, and port integration — creates a logistics ecosystem that serves multiple sectors, diversifying the corridor’s economic impact beyond its mineral transport primary function.

Artisanal Mining and Governance Challenges

The Copperbelt’s mineral wealth is extracted not only by industrial mega-mines but by hundreds of thousands of artisanal and small-scale miners (ASM) who operate with varying degrees of regulation, safety, and formality. Artisanal cobalt mining in particular has attracted international scrutiny due to concerns about child labor, unsafe working conditions, and the falsification of mineral origin documentation. The Entreprise Générale du Cobalt (EGC), a DRC state entity, was established to create formal market access for small-scale cobalt producers, integrating them into regulated supply chains. In November 2025, the DRC announced plans for the creation of more than 50 additional Zones d’Exploitation Artisanale (ZEAs), though these zones remain scarce, poorly located, or non-operational in many areas.

The EU’s engagement through the corridor intersects with European regulatory requirements for supply chain due diligence. The EU’s Critical Raw Materials Act reflects Europe’s strategic interest in securing access to critical minerals, but also imposes due diligence obligations that require European companies to assess and address human rights, labor, and environmental risks in their mineral supply chains. Increased international investment through the Lobito Corridor may intensify competition around mine sites, trading hubs, and transport routes — amplifying the need for robust governance frameworks that address both large-scale and artisanal mining risks.

Strategic Assessment

The Central African Copperbelt is not merely a mining district — it is the geological foundation of the global energy transition. Without the copper for wiring, the cobalt for batteries, and the lithium increasingly discovered in the region, the shift from fossil fuels to clean energy technologies cannot proceed at the pace climate targets require. The Lobito Corridor is the infrastructure that connects this geological endowment to the markets that need it.

The strategic question is whether the corridor can evolve beyond a more efficient extraction mechanism into a genuine platform for industrialization. If the DRC and Zambia succeed in establishing local refining capacity, special economic zones, and integrated value chains, the corridor could become the anchor for a Central African industrial ecosystem that captures more of the value from its own mineral wealth. If the corridor merely provides a faster route for raw ore to reach foreign refineries, it will fulfill the fears of critics who see a twenty-first-century repetition of colonial resource extraction. The answer will be determined not by geology but by governance, policy, and the willingness of international partners to invest in value addition alongside logistics infrastructure.